Red Flag Warning: The Ingredients for an Economic Bonfire
Seeing the Red Flags through the grifter haze
A Red Flag Warning is a weather term for proceed with high caution. Conditions are ripe for something bad to happen.
It doesn’t mean the forest is currently on fire; it means the wind is high, the moisture is gone, and the probability of shit going sideways is at a peak.
If you see that flag on the beach, you stay onshore unless you’re an expert. If you see it in the mountains, you don’t light a match.
I’m using this series to point out the wood being stacked, the steady stream of grifter gasoline, and waiting for the spark to set if off. There is a massive segment of early adopters and executives—people compensated solely on increasing shareholder value—who are jumping on the AI trend for one reason: lowering headcount.
If you believe the “we don’t want to replace workers, we want to make them better” line, I have some oceanfront property in Nebraska to sell you. The AI job cuts aren’t a future threat: they are the current operational strategy playing out as you read. Wall Street is champing at the bit every time a CEO like Jack Dorsey signals that "efficiency" is the new North Star, or when companies like Meta and Microsoft purge thousands of staff to pivot payroll into AI capital expenditure. Oracle is burning the furniture to warm the house.
Jack Dorsey signals that efficiency is the new North Star
History is a brutal teacher. From the Luddites losing their looms to the Pinkertons breaking union lines, the track record of those in power taking care of the displaced is essentially zero. AI is just the latest club being used to beat down labor costs while pretending it's "innovation."
So, where does that leave us?
At a potential detriment to my career in tech, I’m taking a stand on two lines:
AI isn’t ready for prime time. We are being fed a half-baked cake and told it's a five-star meal. As Ed Zitron points out, we are entering a phase where companies are spending billions on infrastructure that may never actually pay off — and the math doesn’t seem to add up.
Technology is still awesome. It can be fun, and there are tools—many of them classic, pragmatic automation—that can actually help you work better without selling your soul.
I’m getting on this soapbox because I’d rather sleep at night than profit from the smoke.
Let the chips fall where they may.
